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The Pattern on the ten DJ

As promised

are talking about the ten-year pattern DJ and to a lesser extent the Presidential Cycle Elction for the SP500. These, especially the first, are the figures on which I based my analysis always looking to start as early as 2007. The ten-year pattern represents the behavior of the DJ DJ every decade over a period of 100 years (10 decades from 1900 to 1999). As can be seen in this figure for the year ending in 7 is one year where they are statistically higher chances of a strong retracement. As the years ending with 0. The absolute best years are those ending in 5, followed by those ending in 8, while excellent opportunity to Purchase facing the end of years ending with 2, 3 and 7 with. Timing is very important for the long term, and that's what makes the difference, as it is statistically proven that buying a title at the beginning of the sixth year of every decade, we should wait until the end of the eighth year to see some gain . Buying at the end of the year ending with 9, you have to wait at least five years on average before seeing a profit. I invite you to check yourself on the historical monthly DJ in the Annex. Specifically, as this 2007 is ending, we analyze over time what happened to the years ending in 7. Starting from pre-history index DJ abbiamo avuto dei minimi importanti già nel 1857 da dove poi partì un movimento che portò al raddoppio delle quotazioni. Così come nell’autunno del 1867, 1877 e 1897, 1907. Il 1917 fu una replica del 1907 dove i prezzi subirono in autunno una drastica riduzione prima di decollare per un’altra fase toro di 2 anni. Durante il 1937 ci fu ancora un forte ritracciamento che interessò anche il primo trimestre del successivo anno da dove poi partì un mercato toro lungo 2 anni. Il 1957 ha seguito il modello previsionale alla perfezione così come il 1967 e il 1977. Nel 1987 inutile dire ciò che accadde, tutti sanno del crollo drammatico delle borse. Nel 1997 dopo 9 anni di salita pur chiudendo l’anno in positivo l’indice between July and October 1407 he left the field far points to a 16.8% retracement. This whole series of data that I quoted was taken from the book by Larry Williams "Investing at the right time" is precisely where the ten-year pattern DJ. Obviously the printed book in June 2005 when nobody knew what would happen in 2007. Now we know and we can add 2007 to the full range of years listed above, where the model was observed. The DJ in 2007 as 10 years ago the annual budget closes in positive but fell from a sharp retracement summer-autumn. And even if the result will be respected we should wait two years of good performance of the scales. In the past, very often towards the end of every seven years, to give a jolt to the markets, the Fed took action by filing the cost of money, something that occurred regularly even now, another amazing coincidence. As we saw once again the past has come back remarkably precise to dictate the movements of the lists. Had to be strong and sharp retracement retracement was. This model actually provides a fresh start on the end of the year, with a rebound from the lows, but if it was, for example. for the DAX index and partly for Americans, so it was not for our Intel Corp remained lingered. As for the SP500
Presidential Cycle Elction here we are in front of a model which examines the American presidential cycle, and how it can be seen in addition to noting a retracement of the market during the 3rd year, ie 2007 in this matter, also suggests a cycle last year (2008 in this case ) Best of all four. All that remains is to draw a new budget in a year to test again the reliability of these figures. Enclosed is also a historical place in the DJ since 1929, divided into 6 graphs, and invite you to check the assertions. In the red circles are highlighted every year 0 to 7 according to this model would occur where strong retracement, while green circles show the two three-year intervals where more seconds this model would be convenient to take a position long term. It can not discuss the reliability even though on some occasions has been rejected by the facts. In any case, you should always move after confirmation from the technical analysis on a weekly basis over the medium term.
summary, it could optimize a trading long-term good rules according to this principal. Take a position for long period in the year with rates 2 / 3. Sell \u200b\u200bin the spring of years ending with 7, fall towards the end of the same bull for another 2 years, finally come out every year in the 0 to return to bull market over the next years ending in 2 or 3. Obviously, in these times of bear markets, it can also look into making short positions with long-term. According to this model then the recession that many expect today, but will probably within 2 years or more will begin in two years, with every year of 0. If there will be half of another war or some other global economic upheaval that will lead us into recession, it is impossible to know today, nor was given years before to know what would have caused the retracement of 2007. Today we know, by subprime mortgages, but know it today has little importance, and difficult exercise is difficult to foresee before. The above obviously does not have the gift of infallibility, but the extraordinary frequency which has been repeated for over 100 years and it should at least give pause to take into account. Perhaps this pattern next year will be disregarded, but have in mind where in the cycle of this indicator we could be very useful in the future. I am reminded of how I got stuck taking place in 2000 among the shareholders in full bubble euphoria and fear and many skeptics did not seize the enormous potential presented by the markets in subsequent years 2002 and 2003. It was enough to know this pattern.
With this I wish you all a very healthy 2008, what priority, and success for your investments.

Pattern on ten DJ



















SP500 Presidential Cycle Elction



















monthly DJ series 1929 to 1942



















monthly DJ series from 1942 to 1955



















monthly DJ series from 1955 to 1968



















monthly DJ series from 1968 to 1981



















monthly DJ series from 1981 to 1999



















DJ serie storica mensile dal 1999 al 2007

Signs Of A Wart Dying

Weekly Commentary Weekly Commentary

Settimana semifestiva ed interlocutoria questa appena conclusa. 2 sole sedute non hanno cambiato di una virgola la situazione della settimana precedente. L’indice SPMIB chiude l’ottava con un rialzo pari allo 0,97%, attestandosi a quota 38.554. Ritornando al sondaggio chiuso il 10 novembre scorso lo scenario meno votato si è rivelato quello esatto. Ricordo di seguito i risultati:
Dove sarà lo SPMIB a fine anno?
Tra 42.000 e 44.000 (54%, 50 Votes)
Tra 40.000 e 42.000 (22%, 20 Votes)
Sotto i 38.000 (13%, 12 Votes)
Between 38,000 and 40,000 (12%, 11 Votes)
The year 2007 leaves us in a dowry for the negative performance of Intel Corp to a nearly 8% year to date. Better to have done almost all the other lists, America and Europe, with the DAX in my head that scored a surprising jump by nearly 22%. To monitor the levels of reference to previous analysis of the December 21, not being changed by one iota the situation in these last 2 days of reduced activity for the markets. Good trading, good year-end 2008 and good for everyone.

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Closed in red for our main index leaves on the ground that this eighth of 1, 77% scoring 38,182 points in closing. Back once again bearish trend while the short-term course to confirm the medium term on a weekly basis. The medium-term downward channel highlighted by the following graph and accompanying quotes from top in May, tonight is its dynamic resistance at the top of the channel at an altitude of about 39,600. At 2 static strength of 40,611 and 41,158 share tonight would add the new static resistance formed on December 12 at an altitude of 39,858. So to set a movement that is more bullish than usual bounce our index will be confronted and overcome this whole series of levels. Always dangerous downward failure of the minimum quota would encourage the violation of which 37,184 new dangerous excursions downturns. Later this year will post a study on the trading methodology based on the study of the pattern on the tenth anniversary of the DJ and SP500 of the Presidential Election Cycle. As already discussed extensively in the past from the beginning of the birth of this blog, these patterns predicted for the autumn 2007 the least important (then actually occurred) and a recovery of price lists for the last part of a rapprochement with the highest spring . The reality disable this' latest forecast especially with regard to our index, but not so for eg. for the DAX was reported tonight that close to historical highs, in fact confirming this expectation. As there is no foolproof methods forecasting staff continue to give particular importance to this methodology, if only because he put in prior to the 2007 Hazardous retracements then actually occurred, and a careful trader could take time for these suggestions and act accordingly, lightening or closing many of the positions in the spring.
I wish all readers a Merry Christmas and a happy Christmas.

SPMIB Weekly

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Fiat struggle with the 17 euro loan

this key level of 17 euro, at least in the short could decide the fate of the title. Determining its seal to prevent new dangerous slips. Yesterday, the title had led to di sotto anche in chiusura e oggi tenta di recuperarlo. Il cedimento su base settimanale di tale livello potrebbe favorire un nuovo affondo verso un primo target ribassista di area 15,50. La situazione grafica sul giornaliero nel suo complesso appare deteriorata con le medie mobili più veloci a 22 e 54 periodi che hanno incrociato quella a 200 periodi, andando a formare un pericoloso devil cross, figura ormai presente nel 90% dei grafici di Piazza Affari, a conferma di una situazione molto difficile. Solo un recupero del livello di 19 euro consentirebbe al titolo di impostare un primo tentativo di ripresa di un trend rialzista di breve.

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employee loans

"Transfer of the fifth" is the most common formula loan for workers, hence the complete definition of "transfer of the salary."
loan that falls into the category of loans guaranteed, then "not intended" to purchase a specific good or service, it is not requested any information about the use of the financing. Directed to different classes of workers and different types of contract:
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state employees - civil servants
- employees
private companies - sole proprietorships
- autonomous (with model only)
- atypical

- indefinitely
- time ( maturity of the loan does not exceed that employment contract)
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apprenticeship or training - or retired INPDAP INPS (the law "Budget 2005")

No doubt the appropriateness of this funding is to benefit from them without requiring support from a bank account, the fact assignment of the fifth firm is through monthly installments, fixed-rate for the entire duration of the depreciation (up to 120 months), which may not exceed one fifth of net salary or pension. These rates include any and all incidental costs and insurance.
Their payments are made direct deduction from their pay be implemented by the employer, only the latter fact is responsible for paying for of the funding and, once established the premises, is obliged to grant the request of the employee.
To obtain this funding is essential that the applicant has completed at least 6 to 12 months of seniority, he will simply provide the certificate of salary support to the bank, together with a copy of your paycheck.

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In reviewing the full list of the companies listed in Milan, it is evident
the difficult overall experience from all sectors and all titles. If you look at the daily charts of all listed securities, those that still manage to hold above the moving average to 200 times can be counted on the fingers. They are part of this small circle, with regard to the index only SPMIB AEM, Atlantia , General and Terna , while Finmeccanica , Enel and Telecom are now in contact. In mid-caps are only in small ASM while resisting Alerion only now started up again, Bastogi , Brembo , Comm Cairo, Coin , Greenvision , Kerself and Valsoia .
The rest of the list with the MM 200 is above his head, obviously there are very disadvantaged sectors such as real estate, banking and the cement and others who have held up better. The graphical analysis has shown that for many of these titles now have the MM 200 times far away, takes months before changing the medium to long term trend and then to recover and close above. The above gives us an exact picture of a heavy downward movement of the medium period of adjustment that the performance of Intel Corp alone can not give.

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HOME LOAN

A more common type of loan for home purchase is the mortgage borrower, granted to meet the needs of money, or unsustainable. The amount requested in the loan for the home loan must somehow be linked to the acquisition of real property (first or second home) or for its construction. It is easy to see that you have more extensive facilities provided for by law, for the first home loan. None of this means you can not ask a dumb for other expenses, always linked to the property such as renovation, construction, furnishings, etc..
The home mortgage allows you to have funding in the medium or long term, an amount higher than a personal loan to consumer credit.
may apply for a home loan to all individuals, with the presence of a guaranteed income, who want to buy, build or renovate a building for residential use.

In general, the total capital may not exceed the amount paid over 40% of annual family income of the beneficiary, in addition, the amount of the loan amount requested will be evaluated based on the value of the mortgaged property, or loaned in warranty.
the market lately, there are offers of loans that can cover 100% of the value of the property, calculated on an expert report commissioned by the bank.
To get a home loan there are many parameters to take into account, these will be considered whether or not delivery. An example is that referring to the category of pensioners, according to some statistics, is facing more difficulties on obtaining the mortgage, and they, in fact, there are fewer guarantees than to life, giving rise to issues which the bank would rather avoid.
the interest on home loans have a low risk investment profile, if any, given by the presence of the mortgage on the land, while the interest on bank loans, for other expenses, have higher rates of interest.
The evaluation criteria for obtaining a home mortgage are simple but strict:
- the relationship between the mortgage payment and the monthly income can not exceed 30%
- the loan can not exceed 80% the value of the property, except for the 100% mortgage, on which there are maximum limits on the amount financed
- do not be bad payers or tax bias

There are tax breaks for those who request a home mortgage, for example interest cost (if buying first home) are deductible from income tax of 19% of the beneficiary. The house has everything mortgage
interest to satisfy the request of the beneficiary to consider these data to find the best combination:
- amount of funding, can only cover part or all of the value of
- Interest rate: it can be fixed or variable for the entire term of the mortgage
- duration: the years in which you can repay the loan in general, the maximum is 30 years
- the amount of rate: the amount given by the rate of repayment of the financing

upon wide-spread demand for loans, banks have started offering various formulas and spread, but equally complex, and this broad ability allows you to choose the best solution closest to their needs, but leads to get lost in a maze of contracts, small print, terminology, and documents a few clear, however, difficult for the person or the layman.

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Collaboration with the loans-sites and on-line-of-credit-cards online

IdeaTrading announces the beginning of a collaboration with the sites and online loan-to-credit-cards-online hoping to please his readers by entering from time to time post dedicated to the world credit cards, mortgages, loans and funding.
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Intel Corp, the situation on the long-term economic agenda of the week

The situation in the long term with regard to the Intel Corp, showed a downward trend for the past 7 months. Specifically, some oscillators as the main storage and waste. low levels were reported to neutral and are moving towards oversold zone. Others such as Williams, for example, are already in oversold but still far from a real inversion (crossing with the moving average). E 'reasonable to assume, given the current graphic, retracement of the move still needs a few months before turning bullish signal for a long time. In my opinion the most plausible scenario is a repositioning from oversold levels of the oscillators with the index that this could go sideways / downward for a few months so as not to cause excessive trauma (read crashes) and can begin a new phase of accumulation. Happy Trading.

SPMIB Monthly

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macro Appointments of the week

17-Dec-07 Ref Area Since Previous Cons. 10:00

December Eurozone manufacturing PMI EURO - Preliminary 52.8 52.3
10:00 EURO Eurozone PMI services in December - Preliminary 54.1 54.0 14:30
December U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 27.4 21.0

18-Dec-07 Ref Area Since Previous Cons.

November 10:30 UK Index UK CPI - m / m 0.5% 0.2% November
10:30 UK Index UK CPI - at 2.1% to 2.1% in October
11:00 Eurozone Trade Balance EURO 3.1 billion / € 3.5 billion / €
14:30 U.S. Launch of new development in November 1229 USA K 1190 K
14:30 U.S. November building permits USA 1170 K 1150 K

19-Dec-07 Ref Area Since Previous Cons.

November 8:00 GER Germany Index PPI - m / m 0.4% 0.4% November
8:00 GER PPI Index Germany - at 2.1% to 1.7% in October
ITA 10:00 Italy orders to industries - m / m 0.3% -0.7% in October
10:00 ITA Italy Orders industries - at 4.8% to 2.8% in December
11:00 GER Germany IFO index 104.2 102.8
16.30 - U.S. oil stocks USA -722 K -

20-Dec-07 Ref Area Since Previous Cons. 9.30

December ITA Italy Consumer Confidence 107.6 107.0
October 10:00 ITA Italy Retail Sales - m / m -0.2% 0.2% October
10:00 ITA Italy Retail Sales - y / y -0.6% 0.7% UK GDP
III 10:30 United Kingdom - t / t 0.7% 0.7% III
10:30 UK UK GDP - at 3.2% to 3.2%
III 11:00 ITA Italy Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.9% 14:30
III U.S. U.S. GDP (GDP) - t / t 4.9% 4.9% 14:30
III USA Chain deflator 0.9% 0.9% USA
14.30 - USA USA 333000 requests unemployment - 16:00 November
U.S. Leading Indicators -0.5% -0.1% U.S.
December 18:00 Philadelphia Fed Index USA USA 8.2 8.0

21-Dec-07 Ref Area Since Previous Cons. 8:50

November PPI Index FRA France - m / m 0.6% 0.8% November
8:50 FRA France PPI Index - YoY 3.3% 4.2% 9.30
December business confidence ITA Italy 92.2 91.8 10.30
November UK Retail UK - m / m -0.1% 0.0% November
10:30 UK Retail UK - at 4.2% to 4.4% in October ordered euro
11:00 industries Euroland - m / m -1.6% 1.0% October
11:00 EURO Orders industries Euroland - YoY 2.0% 2.4% in November
14:30 U.S. Personal Income 0.2% 0.5% USA November 14:30
USA USA Personal expenses 0.2% 0.5% December
16:00 U.S. University of Michigan index 74.5 74.3

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The errors of the center

The errors of the center. Some thoughts on Il Giornale. Dear Right

how many occasions have you done to escape Geminello Alvi

He declined to fight against the State of Giordano Bruno Guerri

should stop being afraid of modernity Angelo Mellone

But freedom is never a 'pull' Editorial

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The bill is incostuzionale Mastella?

Taking A Conservative Mind: How is it that if someone says that "the Holocaust has never existed, is only an invention of the Jewish lobby, "the law Mastella slams in his cell for up to four years, and if one says that" The Gulag Foibe and never hesitate, they are all inventions of the fascists ", the same rule if they cares?

Foreword I am opposed to this law.

But let us ask, we are sure that this law is not unconstitutional?
Some claim that this law is in conflict with Article 21 of the Constitution do not exclude even if we know that the limit of decency and public order un'pò interprets it as you wish.
Rather I shall focus on another element of unconstitutionality: Following the reasoning above (taken from an article by Carioti) we say that this law of sin unreasonableness and is challenged to a clear violation of Article 3 of the Constitution This is especially true when you consider that just one year ago, in January 2006 at the request of the countries of Eastern Europe, the Council of Europe passed a resolution by a majority morally equate communism and Nazism.

The assessment of reasonableness by the Constitutional Court could develop as follows: two standards are compared, the contested provision (in our case, the implicit rule which excludes the memory of the protection afforded by the ravines to the memory of the Holocaust) and the norm recruited for comparison, which is called in the jargon tertium comparationis (in our case the rule that protects the memory of the Holocaust prosecuting those who deny its existence).
The Court will then have to rebuild ratio legis of the provision in question and whether it is justifiable given the different legal framework than that provided by the contested provision of the tertium comparationis . If we believe that the distinction in treatment is justified (which is what I contend) decide the constitutionality of the provision in question at the point it does not provide the same treatment to the memory of the sinkholes and the gulag.

This is my opinion (I could be wrong). Tell me

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thought theocon and newspapers for ideas in politics

Il Foglio diveta bipartisan. From mid-February, the newspaper Giuliano Ferrara will insert two pages (but with the project up to four) edited by a team of centrosinitra reform: the sociologist Giuliano da Empoli, former Senator Frank Debendetti DS, the veltroni Chicco Testa , Senator Margaret (and former editor of The Reform) Antonio Polito. will also help the publisher Marsilio. For Il Foglio, center-but very independent, a small revolution.

E 'likely that the new daily Liberal (which must be born from the experience of bimonthly and namesake of the weekly The Sunday ) will hold a line Theocon as indeed is already doing Il Foglio.

But there who (read here also ), and we're not talking about radicals, speak, and not without reason, the decline of theocons. At editorial level but this idea does not find much support.

The Independent Ideas may, in my opinion, apply to be the daily review proposes to offer this perspective. Certainly it would require a significant investment, the number of pages should spend at least 4 to 8, with the inserts montematici which deal with economics, culture, geopolitics ... of 2 / 4 pages. Needless to say that the director would be ideal for me Pierluigi Mennitti .

Speaking of newspapers. Fini said he wanted to transform Il Secolo d' from Italy daily newspaper to party ideas. Well after the redesign because they do not trust the leadership to a young and capable journalist as well as political scientist Angelo Mellone (Taranto 1973. A professional journalist, writing for the newspaper, and was a columnist for the "Century of Italy" and a contributor to "reform". He Ph.D. in communication at the Department of political science and sociology at the University of Florence, and conducts research at the Department of the historical and socio-political Luiss Rome. Author, among other things, the successful book "Say something right") rather than a deputy , even though they are as capable as Flavia Perina?

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communication has its weight

Why say "spending" when investment yelds a more positive vibe? E 'Thus begins a (alas) a brief article in Time where he talks about the new book by Republican guru Frank Luntz "Words That Work: It's Not What You Say, it's what people hear." He argues (un'pò the discovery of the hot water really), that language used by Republican politicians will be decisive to win the next election. It continues with other examples: "death tax" instead of "estate tax", "climate change" instead of "global warming" and "scholarship" instead of "vouchers".
In Italy it would take such a thing, especially for Fini: some "tear" would be absorbed more easily if presented the right way.

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Environmentalism

I read this and I must say that I just can not understand why environmentalism in Italy must remain the prerogative of only one still left. Once cleaned of a substantial layer of ideolgia, environmentalism (liberal) should begin to be part of the vocabulary of the center-right Italian.
I would not be surprised if an upcoming issue of Design was titled "Liberal Environmentalism." In fact he would never complete the adoption.


PS: Sarkozy is focusing on Environment, Human Rights and Sustainable Development, for years considered the exclusive property of the left.

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Liberal Thinking the Unthinkable. Robert Sirico on Radical Agency

Council reading this interview Alberto Bitonti the Reverend Robert Sirico, president dell'Acton Institute for the Study of Religion & Liberty.

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Aznar: you accuse Ahmadinejad at the Hague Court of incitement to genocide! New

There was a time when the Left, especially those in Europe, watched with deep admiration all'esistenza di Israele . Da un lato si trattava di recuperare una giustizia storica nei confronti del nazismo che non si era mai riusciti a ottenere con i propri mezzi; dall'altro, c'era il romanticismo dei kibbutz che in pieno deserto creavano frutteti secondo i principi di un autentico socialismo egualitario. Ma l'ammirazione ben presto svanì quando Israele fu costretto a difendersi dai propri vicini facendo ricorso alle armi, a volte preventivamente come in occasione della guerra dei sei giorni. La sinistra, inoltre, impegnata a portare dalla sua parte un proletariato che in Europa le voltava le spalle, vide nei palestinesi il protagonista rivoluzionario della sua storia. E via via che Israele veniva considerato un'appendice degli Stati Uniti, l'antiamericanismo ended up confused with the visceral hatred for the Jewish state. Today, in fact, be anti-American and anti-Semitic is pretty much the same thing. There are many who rejoice every time the UN General Assembly adopts a resolution condemning the state of Israel, whatever its justification or legitimacy.
Just as too many people prefer not to listen to the threats, every other day and the other as well, Israel launched against the existence of the current Iranian President Mohammed Ahmadinejad. They, however, do not realize the grave mistake they are committing. The left can not accept that in today's world there are politicians who speak openly, sinceramente e senza mezzi termini dei propri obiettivi e delle proprie intenzioni. Eppure, sappiamo fin troppo bene che di individui così ce ne sono stati e ce ne sono tuttora. Uno è stato Hitler, che espresse in maniera inequivocabile il suo piano d'azione nel ben noto Mein Kampf anche se nessuno al momento gli prestò soverchia attenzione; un altro è Bin Laden, al quale il mondo non credette quando dichiarò unilateralmente guerra all'America e continua ancora a non credere quando dice di volere farla finita col mondo occidentale e instaurare un nuovo Califfato. Personalmente non metto in dubbio le parole di Ahmadinejad, che ritengo più che capace di dare attuazione ai propri piani il giorno in cui riterrà di disporre dei mezzi necessari per realizzarli.Proprio a year ago, the Iranian leader opened a conference in Tehran with an image that went around the world: an hourglass on the basis of which he had broken a ball with the colors of the American flag, while another, with that Israel was about to fall apart. No less famous were his words: "We need to wipe Israel off the map". At one year after a year in which we need to remember, it was mocked by the international community about Iran's nuclear program is celebrated here that another international conference in the Iranian capital, this time to deny the very existence of the Holocaust ie Hitler's genocide, which threatened to destroy completely the people ebraico.Quella its provocation of a year earlier remained unpunished. The Europeans hope that Iran would open to dialogue and negotiation, so they chose not to react. For this reason, because his words did not provoke if not feeble protests, the Iranian president is allowed to return to threaten Israel. Not content with denying the Holocaust and thereby to challenge the legitimacy of the birth of Israel, the leader of the Islamic Republic said he hoped the end of the Jewish state. "The days of Israel are numbered," he esclamato.In that occasion, his words have caused no more than a few tepid diplomatic condemnation in major European registries. Against Ahmadinejad, however, is ben altro che mere espressioni di disapprovazione. Da anni si discute su come contrastare un Iran chiaramente intenzionato a dotarsi di armi atomiche, e tuttavia continuiamo a disquisire su quali possano essere le strategie da seguire per raggiungere il consenso all'interno del Consiglio di Sicurezza dell'Onu. Bene: se la comunità internazionale non riesce a mettersi d'accordo sul programma nucleare, si continui pure a parlare, ma questo non significa che le provocazioni di Ahmadinejad debbano passare senza conseguenze.
Il mio buon amico Bibi Netanyahu ha lanciato un'iniziativa che merita di essere presa in considerazione: accusare il presidente iraniano di incitamento al genocidio. Non è uno scherzo. E' imprescindibile che i leader e gli ayatollah iraniani know that they must comply with certain rules and that, otherwise, if they should suffer the consequences. We can argue about the kind of economic sanctions to be imposed on Iran launched a nuclear power on the road, but the penalties are always affect those implemented against the political leaders. The proposal to prosecute Ahmadinejad at the international level has the merit to begin to apply this kind of limited sanctions, but much efficaci.Invocando the dissolution of a sovereign state without receiving any provocation by Israel, if not its very existence, Mohamed Ahmadinejad is making a big mistake according to international law. He not only relies on principles contrary to those established by the Charter of the United Nations, but it is also guilty of a flagrant violation of the Convention against genocide. You could then add that his statements conflict with the provisions of the Statute of the International Criminal Court. In fact, if instead of being the president Ahmadinejad of Iran was a Serb leader, has already been put in a state indictment by the Court in The Hague. We must realize that rely on the destruction of Israel must not remain unpunished. If the words of today will not have a strong response, alone intentions will turn into harsh reality. What do you think of our silence will be the enemies of Israel? One thing, namely, that Israel is now more alone than ever and therefore weaker. For each of our segno di debolezza, gli avversari diventano più forti. Ma si sbagliano, e di molto, coloro che credono che tutto finirà per risolversi entro i confini del Medio Oriente. Oggi Israele è sottoposto a troppe minacce. I palestinesi e i terroristi suicidi; l'islamismo di Hezbollah a nord; Al Qaeda a sud, e sempre più presente in Giordania; senza contare il fondamentalismo iraniano. E un elemento li accomuna tutti: l'antioccidentalismo. Ahmadinejad non pensa al destino del popolo palestinese quando proferisce le sue minacce, ma pensa all'Islam e all'America, il Grande Satana. Pensa a Israele come al nemico occidentale alle sue porte.Per questo è così importante difendere Israele. Perché, pur trovandosi in Medio Oriente, è una fully western nation and its disappearance would mean the loss of our position in this world and in all likelihood, the beginning of an attack against us. Abandon Israel to its fate would be to close our eyes to the moral constraints, political, economic, cultural, historic and strategic that unite us. Today more than ever.

Jose Maria Aznar

Source: The Gazzettino

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(so to speak) on the slope ideas editorial

And 'I do not know that I never do on my own and that is my habit to give unsolicited advice. These include:

currently Foundation Design , or rather the publishing house, publishes the bimonthly magazine of political culture Design. Thanks to the contribution of a large company, also publishes the fortnightly Emporion online geo-economics.

The Liberal Foundation also publishes a bimonthly politics and culture attached to it but also the quarterly Risk Liberal notebooks geopolitical culture.

Well here's an evolution on the slope Design: Al
bimonthly political culture may be accompanied by a quarterly economic, political and European culture in which senior figures in the worlds of politics, economy and culture of the European Union can freely Right Nation discuss and debate the future of Europe. Chance name: EUROPEAN PAPERS

Emporion could turn into an online journal of geopolitics and geo-strategic and geo-economics of the false International Affairs, the journal on-line open and dynamic, sponsored by the Institute for International Affairs. This does not have a day of output defined and formalized, but is instead characterized by a continuous renewal. Readers can find articles, reviews, essays, documents, reviews and surveys that are updated to continuous flow. The news is reported automatically every week via the newsletters. The book
Emporion could instead continue to be updated every two weeks, they could deal with each major region of the world (North America, Latin America, Middle East, Far East ...).

E 'is well known that in a few months will be on newsstands the daily Liberal with it should go bimonthly in Annex also the namesake of the above was discussed. Today it is seen combined with the bi-monthly The Reformist Papers radicals. I wondered then, why not attach the quarterly Samizdat (which could be transformed for the occasion in every two months) of Committees for Freedom daily Free ?

President Washington Radio

A Forum of Ideas for the think-tank of the Italian Right Nation

L ' European Ideas Network (EIN) is open network of think tanks and political foundations at European level founded on the initiative of EPP-ED Group of the European Parliament in the summer of 2002. Through regular meetings and exchange of ideas and research papers EIN aims to add value to the work of parties affiliated to the EPP-ED Group. The cooperation has deepened in the summer of 2004 with the signing of an agreement in Berlin more restricted, including 25 members, which aims to develop shared vision, encouraging the formulation of strategies, solutions, policies and projects and by encouraging the organization of workshops between experts and conferences.

It currently includes 35 organizations from 19 EU countries and involves attivamente più di 500 persone.

EIN si avvale di due strumenti di cooperazione. Il primo consiste di 12 gruppi di lavoro, ciascuno coordinato da un presidente e da un relatore, distinti per materia e composti da esperti. Il secondo, utilizzato in ambito più ristretto dai firmatari dell'accordo di Berlino, consiste invece di 7 task force, ciascuna coordinata da una fondazione leader e composta dai rappresentanti dei think tank e delle fondazioni. I gruppi di lavoro e le task force preparano ricerche tematiche da presentare alle periodiche riunioni di EIN.

Evento culminante del calendario di lavori di EIN è la Summer University, una conferenza di tre giorni che si svolge ogni anno in un paese diverso, nel mese di settembre, and which attracts academics, journalists, representatives of think tanks and political foundations of EIN, opinion leaders and policy-makers from across Europe. The conference fuels debates at plenary and offices in more restricted within groups of experts and panel discussions between representatives of high-profile worlds of politics and business. The last Summer School was held in Lyon from 21 to 23 September 2006 in the name of the theme "The World in 2020: Facing the Challenges of Tomorrow" and has attracted over 300 participants from 26 countries.

Well, why not create in Italy a Forum ideas along the lines of the Summer University that collects the esponenti dei princiapli think-tank, associazioni, riviste, giornali, case editrici, ma anche singoli intellettuali più o meno vicini al centrodestra italiano?

I primi promotori potrebbero essere la Fondazione Ideazione , la Fondazione Magna Carta , la Fondazione Liberal , la Fondazione Nova Res Publica e la Fondazione Free che sono i think-tank più vicini a Forza Italia ma potrebbero essere invitati a partecipare anche think-tank indipendenti come l' Istituto Bruno Leoni , l' Acton Institute e il CIDAS e think-tank vicini ad altri partiti di centrodestra come la Fondazione Fare Futuro (AN) and the Foundation Ants (UDC). (The list continues here ).

PS To facilitate greater exchange of ideas between the various liberal-conservative think-tanks around the world have been created network. In addition to the aforementioned EIN, which collects the think tanks close to the EPP, there is, still in Europe, the Stockholm Network collecting the independent liberal think-tank. L ' ATLAS Foundation aims to achieve similar goals to the latter but worldwide. Some think-tank
Italians are already part of these circuits, but many others do not. If I were them we'd think ...

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New Generation Parallelism

Journalists. New generation easy right:

Christian Rocca (1968) Il Foglio
Matt Felts (1969) La Stampa
Angelo Mellone (1973) Il Giornale
Angelo Crespi (1968) The Sunday
Filippo Facci (1967) Il Giornale
Paul Mass ( 1976) Ants

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The Reform: The New Reasons Socialism = The Review: The Freedom

It 's time to invest some wealthy businessman early on the last two

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Giavazzi and progressive liberalism

laughs Monday to read the Corsera : As is known from time immemorial, for various reasons, many children tend to do the same work of their parents. But I noticed that the children have this aspiration to prof. Giavazzi just does not go down! It does not matter to enter the profession of notary is necessary to pass one of the toughest competitions (the notary is a public official) and that of course this should make the contest even the children of notaries. And no matter that, as a demonstration of what we just said, only 10% of Italian notaries (lower percentage of the whole landscape professional) have a family devoted to the same profession. Giavazzi All this does not matter what he wants is that the children of notaries are not able to gain access to the notarial profession (at least that can be seen from the article), how this can happen I do not know. I guess with a bountiful law (cmq unconstitutional) to prevent precisely the only children of notaries to participate in the competition for access to the notarial profession. What about ... long live liberalism de left!

UPDATE: a. man talks about Giavazzi Puzzles

Best Anti Inflammatory

The poet in defense of the West

fundamentalism wins when the reason you give up, give their history, the age-old traditions mixed with the salt of the customs and seasoned with the wisdom of civilized life. Fanaticism, sick companion of terrorism, where the West is advancing its role as a waiver of claim. It is ashamed of the signs Christian Christmas hiding them, covering them to avoid offending Muslim sensibilities. Actually, retires, defeated, throwing an ill-concealed sense of human solidarity towards other peoples of the earth and other religious beliefs. It is the beginning of the end.
to support a writer and a sharp thinker, uncomfortable, that knows no half-measures of mediation and, therefore, has made many enemies. Nico Naldini is an atheist, but not disbelieving. It has deeply angered in recent weeks, the news that England had chosen to forego the traditional Christian symbols of Christmas forgetting that speak to those who believe not. "This political correctness often becomes a betrayal of the secular state and represents a frightening withdrawal of Western culture on Islam. " Intellectual and poet, man of culture and cousin Pierpaolo Pasolini, Friuli and Treviso source adoption, Naldini look at what is happening in recent years on the fiery relationship between the West and East, between Christianity and Islam, and does not understand easier, fearful withdrawal. A friend of Oriana Fallaci, since at the time the Tuscan journalist wrote his first book - "The Seven Sins of Hollywood" - he worked at Longanesi, the publishing house that published it, she shared the fears. Not the anathemas. And today, just passed the feast of the Nativity, reflects on the clash between cultures and the inability complaint Europe to raise his head.
know the Muslim world?
"It is eighteen years since I go to Tunisia in Sidi Bou Said, a village on the outskirts of Carthage, where I move up to raids in Algeria, and Morocco in the Sahara desert. The Islamic world attracts me, is a culture that I continue to study, as well as their religion. When I'm there I read, write and live in solitude because I abhor the Italian clubs. I go there six times a year for a month at a time so that, eventually, I live half the time in Italy and half in Tunisia. "
From what started her thinking about the clash of cultures?
"I paused to reflect on the outcomes negative integration, not only in Italy but also in France and England. And "the" has offered me his England, a country which has abolished the signs of Christmas with the intent not to offend Muslim sensibilities. This is a victory for fundamentalists and terrorists and at the same time is a frightening withdrawal of Western culture before Islam, a message that the masses swallow up and incorporate as grasshoppers satiated and satisfied. They understand only that they made it. Who won. I say this because I have an image before my eyes that I had frozen blood. I was in Tunisia when the assault on the Twin Towers and all of half an hour later, in Tunisia, cell phones had the Twin Towers burning. It passed the messaggino with each other in victory. "
And the crucifixes in classrooms?
"Even the crosses are part of our old tradition. How can we think of out of school? We live with, shoulders, the weight of our history and even if I am an atheist in the history of Christianity which has sent the council and everyone to read the words that ten years before he died, ie 20 November 1942, Benedetto Croce published on his magazine "Criticism." It was the essay "Why we can not call ourselves Christians". "
Why the clash between the West and Islam is strengthening?
"This war breaks out now because the West is not as predominant as it was a century ago. The anti-western preaching is rooted in time and makes breakthrough in a community where the level of civil society is very low: there is poverty, subordination, even envy for the Western world. Thus, the fundamentalist faith is a glue between the various segments of the Muslim world and suggests a possible identification of all those fragments of Arab society that have a great history behind them who know very badly. Finally someone who tells them: "We are the true believers and our identity must be protected against non-believers." Step by step comes to the fanaticism and the terrorist attacks in America and Europe. "
What his feelings in front of everything?
"I understand that we can not erase with a sponge everything handed down to us two thousand years of Christianity. I, as an atheist, I say that the Christian religion has taught us the great virtue of humility. We are the children of the humility of St. Francis and Mother Teresa of Calcutta, who have made the poorest of the poor. In the Muslim world there is humility, but the arrogance and rudeness: it is a people who take offense at all, and vows revenge unto death ".
So what can you do?
"We must aim to maintain our culture alive and intact, based on logical-mathematical training of Newtonian mechanics, the modern rationality. As the crisis in the Western world can not caving in to fanaticism. Our culture must not fall back on itself, preventing any form of expression, not to disturb the minds of others, in the name of a mistaken sense of solidarity that will be interpreted as a failure of the West to Islam. They put in the field of primitive forces that we, with our culture, we have overcome for centuries: the law of retaliation, eye for an eye, the religion that marks daily life, fanaticism. "
His words are like so last crusade of journalist Oriana Fallaci ...
"No, I do not agree with Fallaci. I met her in Milan, at the time of his first book "The Seven Sins of Hollywood" because I was working in the publishing house which published the novel Longanesi. The attended and diventanno friends. But I will not be confused with her. She repeated his words and racial paradigms are fuel that lights the fire of fanaticism and fundamentalism. I warn anyone not to use weapons of racism, but rather, to avoid cultural retreat. Fallaci beats obsessively on the button of the war between civilizations, which he said is fatal. But exactly what should be avoided. The clash of civilizations would mean the end of all civilization. We are a carousel where you can suggest the prevalence of one over. "
And our politicians, how they behave?
"There is no point in launching a cardboard lightning useless against immigrants and immigration, as does the prosindaco Treviso Gentilini. We must instead focus on a more severe and more equitable justice, especially towards foreigners than Italians. Justificationism lack of severity and breadth of vision but are not narrow-mindedness of those who can not deal with problems, nor correct the criminoide Italian youth. "
Why is it so difficult to integrate the immigrants?
"The Muslims I have known nel loro ambiente rappresentano la parte sana della loro società e sono migliori di quelli che arrivano in Italia. Una volta approdati nella nostra società opulenta si mettono in gioco secondo gli aspetti accessibili alla loro sensibilità; molti di loro si adattano a lavorare mandando avanti le aziende del Veneto, molti altri ingrossano le fila della microcriminalità. In entrambi i casi, sia gli onesti che i disonesti, sono sfruttati e quindi accumulano frustrazioni e incamerano odio. In Europa perdono la loro identità più genuina senza acquisirne una nuova e diventano schegge impazzite, facile preda del credo fondamentalista. Così, il problema non è di natura xenofoba, quanto piuttosto di capacità di accoglienza. E lo dico a un popolo, the Venetians, who have made immigration one of their strengths. "
there a solution?
The institutions are still weak. There are, for example, serious investigation to find out how many are immigrants who work illegally, how they live, how and where they aggregate. It is for institutions to do this. Instead the rule gooders and laxity. Lacking any elaboration of a cultural phenomenon that is spreading and threatens to overwhelm us. Are accepted only conduct aliens. It is not a criticism of immigration, which instead should be studied because, for example, we can not imagine that you are still dying of diseases we eradicated a long time, as happens for example in Sudan. Or, to have in our memories as the piles of corpses happens to the people of Kosovo. Those are not our lives and even our memories. Here's what we try to understand in order to regulate a phenomenon that represents a potential resource and may, instead of turning into a catastrophe, without launching anathemas and useless without forgetting our achievements. "
Naldini closes the interview with the suitcase prepared to reach Tunisia. Will spend the entire holiday period, convinced that a hope of peaceful coexistence among peoples should always be sought, starting from the analysis of sincerity and wisdom of the study.

Valeria Lipparini
Gazzettino

Egyptian For You Make Me Happy

Naldini A small criticism University of Liberal Thinking

Silvio Berlusconi has launched a major new cultural project: to create a '"University of Liberal Thinking in order to" break the monopoly of the left in the cultural field and train the future leaders moderate "(read more about it read here). It should be developed in four faculties: Political Science, Economics, Law and Communication Sciences.
Well if the first three are used to train the future leaders (not just political) and the fourth to break the dominance of left in the world of information, one can not but note that this offer is not complete enough training to really break the monopoly of the left nel campo culturale. Diversamente si potrebbe dire se vi fosse anche una Facoltà di Lettere e Filosofia, tradizionalmente sede del sapere umanistico, con un’offerta didattica ampia ed articolata (lettere, filosofia, storia, dams ecc...) attraverso la quale si proponga di offrire competenze professionali nel vasto settore della cultura e delle idee.
Sorprende che non sia così soprattutto se si considera che tra i promotori di questo progetto vi è anche un "umanista" come il Sen. Dell'Utri fondatore, tra l'altro, della Fondazione Bilblioteca di via Senato.

UPDATE: ovviamente sottoscrivo pienamente le critiche mosse da Orso di Pietra, alias Arturo Diconale!