As promised
are talking about the ten-year pattern DJ and to a lesser extent the Presidential Cycle Elction for the SP500. These, especially the first, are the figures on which I based my analysis always looking to start as early as 2007. The ten-year pattern represents the behavior of the DJ DJ every decade over a period of 100 years (10 decades from 1900 to 1999). As can be seen in this figure for the year ending in 7 is one year where they are statistically higher chances of a strong retracement. As the years ending with 0. The absolute best years are those ending in 5, followed by those ending in 8, while excellent opportunity to Purchase facing the end of years ending with 2, 3 and 7 with. Timing is very important for the long term, and that's what makes the difference, as it is statistically proven that buying a title at the beginning of the sixth year of every decade, we should wait until the end of the eighth year to see some gain . Buying at the end of the year ending with 9, you have to wait at least five years on average before seeing a profit. I invite you to check yourself on the historical monthly DJ in the Annex. Specifically, as this 2007 is ending, we analyze over time what happened to the years ending in 7. Starting from pre-history index DJ abbiamo avuto dei minimi importanti già nel 1857 da dove poi partì un movimento che portò al raddoppio delle quotazioni. Così come nell’autunno del 1867, 1877 e 1897, 1907. Il 1917 fu una replica del 1907 dove i prezzi subirono in autunno una drastica riduzione prima di decollare per un’altra fase toro di 2 anni. Durante il 1937 ci fu ancora un forte ritracciamento che interessò anche il primo trimestre del successivo anno da dove poi partì un mercato toro lungo 2 anni. Il 1957 ha seguito il modello previsionale alla perfezione così come il 1967 e il 1977. Nel 1987 inutile dire ciò che accadde, tutti sanno del crollo drammatico delle borse. Nel 1997 dopo 9 anni di salita pur chiudendo l’anno in positivo l’indice between July and October 1407 he left the field far points to a 16.8% retracement. This whole series of data that I quoted was taken from the book by Larry Williams "Investing at the right time" is precisely where the ten-year pattern DJ. Obviously the printed book in June 2005 when nobody knew what would happen in 2007. Now we know and we can add 2007 to the full range of years listed above, where the model was observed. The DJ in 2007 as 10 years ago the annual budget closes in positive but fell from a sharp retracement summer-autumn. And even if the result will be respected we should wait two years of good performance of the scales. In the past, very often towards the end of every seven years, to give a jolt to the markets, the Fed took action by filing the cost of money, something that occurred regularly even now, another amazing coincidence. As we saw once again the past has come back remarkably precise to dictate the movements of the lists. Had to be strong and sharp retracement retracement was. This model actually provides a fresh start on the end of the year, with a rebound from the lows, but if it was, for example. for the DAX index and partly for Americans, so it was not for our Intel Corp remained lingered. As for the SP500
Presidential Cycle Elction here we are in front of a model which examines the American presidential cycle, and how it can be seen in addition to noting a retracement of the market during the 3rd year, ie 2007 in this matter, also suggests a cycle last year (2008 in this case ) Best of all four. All that remains is to draw a new budget in a year to test again the reliability of these figures. Enclosed is also a historical place in the DJ since 1929, divided into 6 graphs, and invite you to check the assertions. In the red circles are highlighted every year 0 to 7 according to this model would occur where strong retracement, while green circles show the two three-year intervals where more seconds this model would be convenient to take a position long term. It can not discuss the reliability even though on some occasions has been rejected by the facts. In any case, you should always move after confirmation from the technical analysis on a weekly basis over the medium term.
summary, it could optimize a trading long-term good rules according to this principal. Take a position for long period in the year with rates 2 / 3. Sell \u200b\u200bin the spring of years ending with 7, fall towards the end of the same bull for another 2 years, finally come out every year in the 0 to return to bull market over the next years ending in 2 or 3. Obviously, in these times of bear markets, it can also look into making short positions with long-term. According to this model then the recession that many expect today, but will probably within 2 years or more will begin in two years, with every year of 0. If there will be half of another war or some other global economic upheaval that will lead us into recession, it is impossible to know today, nor was given years before to know what would have caused the retracement of 2007. Today we know, by subprime mortgages, but know it today has little importance, and difficult exercise is difficult to foresee before. The above obviously does not have the gift of infallibility, but the extraordinary frequency which has been repeated for over 100 years and it should at least give pause to take into account. Perhaps this pattern next year will be disregarded, but have in mind where in the cycle of this indicator we could be very useful in the future. I am reminded of how I got stuck taking place in 2000 among the shareholders in full bubble euphoria and fear and many skeptics did not seize the enormous potential presented by the markets in subsequent years 2002 and 2003. It was enough to know this pattern.
With this I wish you all a very healthy 2008, what priority, and success for your investments.
Pattern on ten DJ
SP500 Presidential Cycle Elction
monthly DJ series 1929 to 1942
monthly DJ series from 1942 to 1955
monthly DJ series from 1955 to 1968
monthly DJ series from 1968 to 1981
monthly DJ series from 1981 to 1999
DJ serie storica mensile dal 1999 al 2007
